Every day, our planet needs to produce 19.5 trillion calories to ensure a healthy diet for 8 billion people. By 2050, when the world population reaches 9.7 billion, around 24.5 trillion calories will be required. To these figures, we must add the calories lost in production processes, those wasted by consumers, and the calories consumed in large quantities by animals, both farmed and wild. This represents a vast amount of energy that we must extract from Earth—a planet with limited productive capacity. We face a serious productivity problem.  

Against this backdrop, we celebrated World Food Day, which marks the founding of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Food security is the state in which all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet dietary needs and preferences for a healthy and active life. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), healthy eating is a human right, just as vital as the right to health. Proper nutrition is varied, energy-balanced, and meets nutrient requirements.

Due to progress made in recent decades, food security has been taken for granted, especially in the West, where we live in calorie abundance. The concern is that this positive trend appears to be slowing, particularly affecting the West. There are two interconnected problems in a vicious cycle: one of demand and one of supply.

Demand for food is increasing as the population grows, but not everyone can access a healthy and balanced diet. A staggering 2.8 billion people cannot afford an adequate diet, and 733 million suffer from hunger. Where food is available, high prices hinder access, as demonstrated by the FAO Food Price Index. This situation affects Europe and Italy as well, where rising prices accompany increasing poverty. Over the past year, the incidence of absolute poverty rose from 7.7% to 8.5% of the population, affecting 5.7 million people. In 2022, 7.5% of Italians could not afford a protein meal every other day, while 15.5% of those at risk of poverty were unable to access adequate meals (Eurostat data).

The second problem lies in supply, which is no longer as abundant as it once was. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), for many staples like corn, rice, and soybeans, 2024 will see significant growth. However, this is not the case for sorghum and millet, critical grains in sub-Saharan Africa. The same goes for vegetable oils—canola, sunflower, palm, and soy—which are essential fat sources. By 2050, 270 million tons will be needed, an unachievable goal with current productivity levels.

The price of cocoa has reached nearly $12,000 per ton due to low productivity caused by climate crises, aging plants, and disease. Can we live without chocolate in a balanced diet? Maybe. But we can’t go without olive oil, our “Mediterranean medicine.” Despite a slight recovery after recent poor yields—Spain is expected to produce 1.3 million tons—Italy remains at 200,000 tons, behind Turkey, Tunisia, and Greece. Next year could improve for us but worsen for others. The problem persists. In Sicily, orange production is expected to decrease by 40-50% due to drought and lack of adaptive strategies.

This situation, though unjustifiable, is not isolated but an evident symptom of a broader crisis that few seem willing to address seriously. Climate crises, geopolitical and socio-economic complications, and limited productive capacity are among the factors fueling food insecurity. These factors are interconnected and influence each other. While the first two are complex and take time to resolve, productive capacity can be improved immediately.

We have two choices ahead: use more land or increase yield per hectare. We’ve learned that the first option is unsustainable, insufficient, and would have a devastating environmental impact, ultimately reducing productivity itself. The second option remains. We have the techniques and technology to increase yield per hectare. We can do even better by investing in regenerative agricultural and livestock innovations, meaning producing more while reducing environmental impact.

Thus, we need national and international policies to encourage investments and promote trade, avoiding unnecessary protectionist and commercial boycotts, like the campaign against palm oil, which we desperately need. Right now, we cannot afford, for commercial or ideological reasons, to boycott any food that provides essential nutrients. This day should inspire us to move past rhetoric and ideological and emotional attitudes, focusing pragmatically on the productivity challenge. Without this commitment, we will continue living in uncertainty.

It’s time to act decisively and responsibly. Only through a pragmatic and collaborative approach can we ensure food security for all and preserve our planet for future generations.

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